AUGUST SUMMER HEAT & STORMS: The oppressive muggies and summer heat are in the cards yet again today. Our upper flow pattern will shift to a more west to east flow rather than a northwest flow today. This will turn off the spigot that pushes thunderstorm activity into the state form the northwest. There’s still one more chunk of energy to fly through today, so expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop through the morning and into the afternoon. Best chances for rain will be farther north; however we sit at a 40% chance for storms today. Again, these will be heavy rain makers and vivid lightning producers. Highs will hit the low to mid 90s before any rain that hits cools things down. Rain should taper as we move into evening plans.
WEEKEND PLANS: Some energy will slide in form our east to bump rain chances to the 50% range on Saturday. We’ll still have a hot and muggy day with highs in the low 90s. Clouds will block some sunshine and storms will help to cool things off. Keep your plans, but be ready for some rain in spots. Sunday, rain chances drop to 30-40% with highs back into the mid 90s.
NEXT WEEK: We’ll be watching a cold front sliding into Alabama for Monday into Tuesday. This will help support above average rain chances for early in the week. Highs stay in the low to mid 90s with the humidity locked into place. By mid week, the front breaks apart and we return to mid 90s and a 30% chance for rain.
BEACH FORECAST: Expect a hot and muggy weekend along the Alabama and Florida Gulf coast. Clouds will break the sunshine by midday and scattered t-storms will roam the beaches. Not everyone gets wet, but be prepared for a few hours of thunderstorms during the day. Rain chances are at 50%. Highs will hit the upper 80s with southerly winds 5-15mph. Rip current risk is relatively low with a very high UV index, so lather up in sun block! Water temps are a very warm 86° along the coast. Have a great weekend!
TRACKING ERNESTO: This system is sliding from the Atlantic into the Caribbean today. The National Hurricane Center expects only slow strengthening as we move through the weekend. By early next week, the system will move into a more favorable environment, so we expect it to intensify then. Right now, the system should continue pushing westward, remaining in the Caribbean waters through midweek. Late in the week, we’ll need to monitor its track and intensity as is moves toward the southern Gulf of Mexico, potentially as a hurricane. Keep checking back and we’ll keep you up to speed as time progresses. It’s way too early to predict any landfall location or strength at this time. You can track Ernesto here: http://www.wsfa.com/link/491983/hurricane-tracker-i-map
(National Hurricane Center 4AM Advisory on Tropical Storm Ernesto.)
-Jeff Jumper, Doppler12 StormVision Meteorologist
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