A WET GO OF IT: Scattered to numerous showers and storms will affect Alabama through the day today. In fact, there are already storms ongoing this morning in some Alabama cities and towns; those will increase in coverage and intensity into the afternoon hours. Some of the stronger storm cores could drop some isolated damaging wind; lightning will be a huge problem in many of the storms today. If you hear thunder, head indoors.
RAIN LINGERS: The chance of rain stays in our forecast tonight and tomorrow, although the best rain chance should start to push into far south Alabama tomorrow. As a very slow-moving front sags southward through the state, it'll carry the best rain chances along its track. So, tomorrow, the best chance of rain will likely be south of a line from Greenville to Eufaula.
DRIER WEATHER? Storm chances go down but not away Thursday and Friday. Highs will warm into the low and middle 90s. Better rain chances creep back into the forecast for the weekend.
TROPICAL UPDATE: Tropical Depression 2 is moving inland over parts of Belize today; this is no threat to the Gulf of Mexico, but will bring rain/wind to the east coast of Mexico over the next few days.
Strong storms flared up this afternoon, with wind being the main problem. Several reports of downed power lines and trees were made along with roof damage. As temperatures drop, storms should lose their strength this evening. Wind, hail and lightning will not be widespread and as serious, but we continue isolated shower/storm chances overnight.
A stray shower possible tomorrow morning, but once again better storm chances move in through the afternoon. A weak cold front drops in Tuesday bringing better rain chances north of our viewing area. This line will start in our northern counties early Tuesday afternoon and continue to slide south through the evening. Storms are possible along the line but since it is weak, if any severe weather pops up, it will be isolated. Coverage will be about 60% with general thunderstorms.
Wednesday will continue scattered shower/storm chances. By Thursday, rain chances drop significantly to 20%, meaning a few isolated shower may pop up in the afternoon with highs in the 90s.
We are keeping our eye on the 2nd tropical depression of this hurricane season.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN BELIZE AND SHOULD MOVE INLAND
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MONDAY RAIN: We're already dealing with a few showers and rumbles of thunder as of the time I'm writing this discussion (a little after 8am). More showers and storms will continue to form and move across Alabama through the day today. This doesn't look like a washout, but we expect roughly a 50% coverage of rain across the southern half of the state today. With the clouds and rain expected, we won't be too hot over the next few days - highs should stay in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
RAIN CHANCE LINGERS: With an active upper pattern and stalled frontal boundary, we'll deal with an ongoing rain chance into the evening hours tonight. Then, tomorrow, with daytime heating added to the mix, we'll see a 70% coverage of rain, with a few embedded thunderstorms likely. Not an all-day rain, but many of us will see at least some rain. Only a few spots stay dry. Rain chances stay higher than normal into Wednesday, too.
HOTTER, DRIER: A more typical summertime pattern is ahead Thursday and into the weekend. High temperatures will rise back into the lower 90s with only a tiny chance of a passing afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Most stay dry, but it will be muggy and hot.
If there is ever a Sunday where local golf courses will be crawling with Dads...it's tomorrow. And fortunately, it appears Mother Nature will (for the most part) cooperate with any outdoor activities Dad may have on the agenda. But the same may not be true as we say goodbye to the weekend and hello to the workweek...
TONIGHT: Nothing cooking out there. Partly cloudy skies will carry us into the wee morning hours as lows settle right around 70 degrees. Pretty tranquil.
FATHER'S DAY: Moisture levels in our atmosphere are heading upward again...and it begins Sunday. That added moisture will likely result in more overall cloud cover out there than we saw toady, but our forecast still calls for a dry day.
Any outdoor plans for Dad should get off without a hitch...rain chances Sunday are running at a meager 10%. One of those days when we can't completely rule out a stray shower, but the odds of rain aren't good. Highs will climb somewhere in the 90-93 degree range, but again expect a touch more cloud cover to come with it.
NEXT WEEK: Moisture is going up and a new cold front will be coming down from the north. This time of year, fronts tend to wash themselves out and slow down in the process. That's how this one will play out, stalling somewhere over the southern third of Alabama into midweek. The end result will mean increased rain chances Monday-Wednesday across the region. We still have some timing/location issues to iron out, but plan on rain/storms in some capacity through midweek. The exact chances & how much will depend on where that front wants to stall out.
Severe weather is not expected during that time frame, but a few stronger storms with frequent lightning & heavy rain would likely be a good bet.
WHAT'S UP IN THE TROPICS? Not much...at all. We're now a solid 2 weeks into the season having already knocked the "A" storm off the list. Still watching and waiting for our "B" storm, with nothing imminently promising at the moment.
A tropical wave over the southwestern Carribean Sea has garnered a tiny 10% chance of development over the next 48 hours from the National Hurricane Center. Better way of looking at it: 90% chance of not developing. Conditions over the next few days could become more conducive for something to try and brew...and that's really the only area of interest at the moment.
BOTTOM LINE: Odds of a dry Sunday are very much in Dad's favor. Get him outside and tell him you love him!
-Doppler12 StormVision Meteorologist Eric Snitil-